By now you’ve heard about the Nerd divorce of the Millennium (is it too early in the 21st century to say that?); the Disney/Sony marriage has come to unceremonious end and Sony has sole custody of the Spider-kid.
Or the Spider-kid’s movies, to be precise.
No one is innocent in this scenario and it’s quite possible that this is the world’s largest game of corporate chicken. The past two weeks have been full of “reports” that the two sides have come back together or they’re on the verge of a new “mega-deal” (or they’re even further apart etc. etc). And it wouldn’t really be surprising to see both parties come to their senses and sign a reasonable deal before anyone can lose any money. And make no mistake, both parties would lose significant dollars (though fans would be the biggest losers).
But having said all that, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the break up last a few years with Sony going it solo for a movie or two before some sort of reconciliation takes place. If that happens, you can bet it will be Sony crawling back to Disney on their hands and knees, begging to be taken back. And when they do, they will have zero bargaining power and, like the proverbial ex, Disney will make them pay for their hubris.
To be clear, Disney will lose money. Perhaps even more than Sony. While Disney only received a sliver of the profits from the last two Spider films (2017’s Homecoming and this year’s Far From Home) the Mouse House received the lion’s share of the lucrative merchandise revenue (well over a billion dollars a year). Not to mention that Spidey is also a central figure in some pretty big upcoming Marvel themed Disney park attractions currently under construction.
Perhaps more importantly though, Spidey had become a central figure in the MCU, especially post Endgame. Kevin Feige and the gang were quickly turning Peter Parker into Tony Stark’s heir apparent, the glue that held everyone together and inspired each hero to be their best selves. Let’s be honest, how many of us bought tickets for Captain America: Civil War because we saw Spidey steal Cap’s shield while making his long awaited debut in the MCU? The web crawler’s presence in the MCU was a dream come true for millions of fans worldwide.
But now, Spider-Man’s absence leaves a huge narrative hole in the MCU and presents its screenwriters with their biggest challenge yet (yes, even bigger than Thanos).
But Sony stands to lose more. A LOT more. Maybe their entire studio.
Sony brass got cocky following their Spider success last fall. While everyone had their fingers crossed that Venom would be a box office success, no one thought it would pass 850 million dollars worldwide. And when the animated Into the Spider-Verse received rave reviews (and subsequently an Oscar for best animated picture), you can bet a lot of players at the top of Sony’s executive food chain began seeing their agreement with Disney/Marvel as a giant leash holding them back instead of a symbiotic (pardon the pun) relationship that benefited them both.
One executive in particular. Tom Rothman plays a big part in this tale and we’ll get back to him momentarily.
But let’s take a closer look at Sony’s success sans Disney and dive a bit deeper into it. While many have pointed to the fact that the Sam Raimi Spider trilogy was a big money maker, the critical ass kicking and lukewarm fan reception that Spider-Man 3 received convinced Sony it was time for a fresh start. And the two films that followed-2012’s Amazing Spider-Man and 2014’s Amazing Spider-Man 2-were disappointments all around (with ASM 2’s box office returns convincing Sony’s bean counters to stick a fork in the franchise again). Don’t let the success of the early films fool you, the only reason the last two Spider films enjoyed such unprecedented success was because of Sony’s partnership with and Spidey’s inclusion in the MCU.
After having members of the MCU star in his solo films and seeing Spidey in three other Marvel films (including the cataclysmically successful Avengers: Endgame), audiences simply aren’t going to accept a Spider-Man in is own solo universe. His brand is now married to the MCU.
As for Venom, its success comes with a couple potential caveats. While there is definitely some audience appetite for a Venom sequel, it isn’t as red hot as many people might think. Closer scrutiny of social media reveals that more than a few critics and fans attribute Venom’s success to star Tom Hardy. Popular sentiment is that Hardy made the movie and if you were to lose him (or if he were to lose interest) the result would be pretty lacklustre. The fact that a disproportionate amount of Venom’s box office (over 75%) came from foreign markets may also be a red flag.
As far as Spider-Verse goes, there’s no arguing that it deserved it’s Oscar (on a personal note, it was my favourite animated movie of 2018). But the fact is it wasn’t exactly a blockbuster, falling well shy of the 400 million dollar mark globally and just breaking even. Worse yet, the word on the street is that Sony brass considered it a toss away and pretty much left film makers Phil Lord and Chris Miller alone. Now that it’s a proven property, there’s a good chance any sequels will have studio fingerprints all over them.
Sony isn’t just demonstrating a worrying lack of self-awareness, but of self preservation as well. Every other movie Sony’s released this year has either underperformed or bombed (Men in Black International anyone?) and Spider-Man is arguably the only franchise they have left.
While the first Jumanji was a hit, no one knows if the franchise can hold an entire studio up until the sequel shows what it can do this Christmas. Maybe Ghostbusters hits next summer, but maybe it won’t. Neither are proven commodities, while an MCU involved Spider-Man is. Sony is taking an enormous, reckless chance.
As we already covered, Disney will lose money and maybe a little bit of face as well. They may even lose more money than Sony, but the truth is Disney has much broader shoulders and much deeper pockets. Disney can take the hit, go fifteen rounds and still just need a second wind. Sony can’t.
The writing should already be on the wall. While Disney took an initial PR beating (which included Stan Lee’s daughter throwing them under the bus), the tide has quickly turned. The wealth of goodies Disney offered up at last weekend’s D23 earned them a lot of credibility. And wouldn’t you know it, while all that was happening, reports surfaced that Sony may have ignored Disney for months during negotiations. That doesn’t paint Sony in a flattering light.
Marvel Studios and the MCU is a pretty teflon brand. It’s why they were able to navigate the hate for Black Panther and Captain Marvel so well. And remember the James Gunn controversy? The one where people on both sides of the issue swore it would destroy Marvel and Disney alike? How did that turn out?
Shortly after news of the divorce broke, #BoycottSony was trending on Twitter. You know what wasn’t? #BoycottDisney. Such a boycott may not happen (they often never do), but Marvel fans have never been this pissed off before either. And if Jumani; The Next Level doesn’t hit this Christmas, what message will that send Sony brass? Or more importantly, what message will they receive and how will they try to spin it?
But here’s the biggest wrinkle. Tom Rothman is now calling the shots at Sony. Rothman has a reputation for never meeting a franchise he didn’t try to kill. Many people hold him responsible for nearly running the X-Men franchise into the ground during his time at Fox. It’s like Kevin Smith said, in Hollywood you only fail upwards. Worse yet, rumour is Rothman has a personal vendetta against MCU architect Kevin Feige, meaning ego may be the biggest hurdle in this whole thing. Rothman is reportedly convinced that he can create a self contained, shared Spider-verse that will not only compete with the MCU, but surpass it.
Yes, Disney will have to do some storytelling somersaults, but there weren’t going to be any more Avengers films for another four or five years anyway. And Marvel’s announced lineup of films (Black Widow, The Eternals, Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3, Shang-Chi, Doctor Strange 2, Black Panther 2 and so on) have little to do with Spidey. And with all the Marvel goodies DisneyPlus has in store for us, well it’s quite possible we forget about MCU Spidey for the time being.
And if it has to, Disney can feed fans some tasty X-Men and Fantastic Four morsels every now and again to keep them distracted while some sort of resolution plays out.
(If Disney really wants to troll Sony, they can produce some animated Spider-Man specials or an entire cartoon series for DisneyPlus. It turns out Mickey still retains the web crawler’s animated rights.)
What we’re likely to see happen is Sony invest heavily in a solo Spider film. And even if Tom Holland returns as the friendly neighbourhood Spider-Man, it will likely fail to achieve the same level of success the MCU films enjoyed. It may even bomb outright. And when that happens, we could see one of two scenarios.
First, Sony cans Rothman and they go crawling back to Disney. Right now Sony has some bargaining power to strike a favourable deal that would keep their gravy train on the tracks and everyone happy (most importantly the fans). If this scenario happens though, Sony will have no bargaining posture at all and Disney will make a. new deal on their terms.
The second scenario could see Sony stubbornly push forward, crank out as many underperforming movies as they can and hemorrhage money left and right. And if Jumanji or Ghostbusters or anything else fails to take Spidey’s place as Sony’s meal ticket . . .
Sony is squandering what little bargaining power it has while gambling with it’s future. All while there’s no scenario that ends well for it. This is a fight it can’t win. Disney will survive without Spider-Man. There may be some bumps along the road but they’ll pull through. There’s a very big chance Sony won’t.
Unless they blink.
Image via Whatculture.com
