BOX OFFICE ROUNDUP: TALE OF TWO MOVIES -

THIS WEEKEND’S BOX OFFICE NUMBERS WERE A DOG’S BREAKFAST, BUT THERE WERE STILL A PAIR OF INTERESTING STORIES WORTH LOOKING AT

Here’s the thing; no one really knows what to make of this weekend’s box office results. There was plenty going on this weekend that either directly or potentially impacted Hollywood’s ability to make money. Whether it was Hurricane Matthew shutting down Florida and much of the American southeast or untold moviegoers staying home Sunday night to watch the second debate in one of the most divisive and contentious presidential campaigns in recent history, the movies had plenty of competition.

Which is why these numbers are about as clear as October mud. So instead of trying to make some sort of sense out them, let’s take a look at two new comers and the narratives that go with them.

Let’s start with this weekend’s new number one, Girl on the Train. The adaptation of Paula Hawkins’ international bestseller captured the top spot at the domestic box office with 24.7 million dollars. Now the question is, how good is that?

In 2014, the adaptation of Gillian Flynn’s bestselling suspense Gone Girl opened the first weekend of October with 37.5 million en route to a 167 million domestic gross. This weekend last year, The Martian (another adaptation of a bestseller) opened with 54.3 million (it wound up taking home over 221 million domestically as well as a bunch of Oscar nods). But is it fair to compare Girl on the Train to those two films?

Neither Gone Girl nor The Martian had to compete with a hurricane or a presidential campaign and, with all fairness to Emily Blunt; both were lead by Hollywood super stars in Ben Affleck and Matt Damon respectively. In fact, this was one of the better openings in Blunt’s career when she was playing the lead. But having said all that, Girl on the Train debuted lower than September releases Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, The Magnificent Seven and Sully. And as I wrote last week, September is a month Hollywood is hoping to forget.

We’ll probably have to see what sort of drop Train experiences next weekend (and it’s international numbers) before we can tell how well it’s going to perform. It got tepid reviews and a lukewarm reception by many of the book’s fans, but in the end it only had a budget of 45 million. It will also likely enjoy a strong performance in Blunt and Hawkins’ native Britain, which should allow Universal and everyone else involved to turn a buck or two.

But this weekend’s most interesting story was the debut of Birth of a Nation, an awards darling that was supposed to help Hollywood with its diversity problem (particularly during awards season). This was a film that was made by virtual unknown Nate Parker, it was made against every single odd in the world during racially polarized times and it won the adoration of every festival it played. Based on a slave revolt in 1831 Virginia, Nation provoked a bidding war among all the major studios for its distribution rights (20^th Century Fox eventually came out on top after they ponied up a reported 17.5 million), was supposed to capture a dozen Oscar nominations and was considered a culturally pivotal movie that would lay the groundwork for a new generation of black film makers.

Unfortunately, it became a textbook example of a movie being devoured by external forces outside of its control and what not to do when confronted by controversy. The death spiral began when a rape accusation made against Nate Parker in 1999 came to light. While Parker and roommate Jean Celestine were eventually found innocent (Celestine was originally convicted but exonerated on appeal), Parker’s response to the allegations has been misdirected, unwise and stubborn. He rarely expressed anything other than anger over questions on the subject and even shutdown some interviews instead of addressing it. When it was revealed the alleged victim committed suicide in 2012, the optics became unsalvageable, especially when Parker refused to alter his already questionable media strategy following her death.

The scandal has undoubtedly hurt Nation’s early box office as it opened in sixth place with only 7.1 million and it’s highly unlikely that Fox will recoup its investment (which includes millions of promotional and advertising money on top of the 17 and a half million they’ve already shelled out). The only remaining question is how much will this scandal hurt the film’s award chances? Many industry insiders feel Parker’s handling of the scandal has sabotaged his film’s shots at any Oscar glory. If that is the case, we have to ask if Parker is being held to a different standard then other filmmakers like Roman Polanski (who was convicted of statutory rape) and Woody Allen (who is just plain gross)?