Here’s Why Warner Bros. May Just Be Able To Dethrone Mickey As King of the Box Office
Remember the chills of anticipation you got when you were a kid and the Warner Bros. logo preceded your favourite Saturday morning or after school cartoon? Remember how excited you got, hearing that orchestra music and seeing a tuxedo clad, carrot chewing Bugs Bunny leaning against the gold trimmed Warner Bros. logo? Well get ready because you’re probably going to get those chills a few times this year.
A few weeks ago I made the case that after spending the early years of the 21st century at the bottom of Hollywood’s food chain, Walt Disney Studios had become the entertainment world’s Apex predator.
But one of the studios that used to look down on Mickey and company remains a strong second. In fact, you may even argue that Warner Bros. is now the David to Disney’s Goliath, and if any studio has a chance of knocking Disney from their perch as the current Box Office king, it’s the WB.
Warner Bros. executed a tailor made strategy last year that allowed them to compete with Disney on more than one occasion. It’s a formula it’s tweaked (and arguably strengthened) heading into 2017. If Warner pulls it off and a few dominoes fall just the right way, no one should be surprised if it challenges Disney for this year’s box office title.
First, Warner spread three franchise/tent-pole releases (Batman Vs. Superman, Suicide Squad and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them) out over the course of the year, separating each by three or four months to keep them from cannibalizing one another. Each one was also released on a “soft” weekend, a normally quiet time of the box office calendar with minimal competition (Easter weekend, for instance). Not only did each one open huge and dominate their premier weekends as a result, but l three found their way into the top ten box office earners for the year.
Despite repeated curb stomping by critics, BvS and Suicide Squad combined to bring in over 1.6 billion at the global box office while Fantastic Beasts 810 million dollar worldwide haul proved there was still plenty of mileage left in the Harry Potter franchise. (There shouldn’t have been too much concern over the Potterverse’s continued box office mileage. When Harry Potter and the Cursed Child was released in July, it took about twenty minutes to become the best selling book of 2016).
Despite it’s (many) flaws, the DCEU was now established as a cash cow and Warner had successfully reinvented the Harry Potter franchise (following Fantastic Beasts’ blockbuster opening, Warner announced they were turning the new Potterverse tale into a five movie series with the first sequel scheduled to hit theatres in November 2018). As a result, Warner now has four profitable franchises to call their own (more on that later).
But that was only half of Warner’s 2016 success story. They supplemented their big three with a series of inexpensive, smaller films that enjoyed varying degrees of box office success. While they had at least one big budget under performer (The Legend of Tarzan), movies like Me Before You, Central Intelligence, The Conjuring 2, Sully and The Accountant were all made relatively cheap and saw significant returns on their investment. Even the criminally under appreciated animated Storks proved to be leggy enough to break even with over 182 million dollars worldwide.
Perhaps no movie typified the kind of success Warner had last year better than the ultra-small budget horror Lights Out. Based on a viral video, Lights Out came with a bargain basement price of 4.9 million, yet wound up grossing almost 150 million worldwide. This cemented James Waan as the current master of horror and validated the WB’s decision to hand him the reins of both its emerging horrorverse as well as the Aquaman solo movie.
Don’t get the idea Warner didn’t have their fair share of challenges in 2016. Other than the aforementioned Tarzan, they had a few under performers (War Dogs, How To Be Single, Barbershop: The Next Cut) and bombs (The Nice Guys, Keanu). And few movies were bigger disappointments than the Will Smith holiday vehicle Collateral Beauty, would be Oscar bait that wound up being the worst opener in Smith’s long and storied career. But at the end of the fiscal day, Warner wound up stuffing 4.7 billion dollars into its piggy bank, second only to Disney’s record breaking 2016 haul.
And while 2017 is off to a rough start with the dismal performance of Live By Night, no one should be surprised if Warner top’s its success from last year. Remember when I said they have four franchises in their arsenal? Three of them will be on full display this year.
Warner releases the much-anticipated follow up to their 2014 smash hit the Lego Movie when Lego Batman hits theatres this week. But Batman isn’t the only Lego movie we’ll be treated to this year because Warner expands the animated Lego franchise in September with Lego Ninjago. They continue to grow their horror line with Annabelle 2 in August and the movie adaptation of Stephen King’s It in September. And you can’t talk about Warner Bros. this year without including Wonder Woman (June) and Justice League (November) in the conversation. The next two entries in DC’s cinematic universe will likely be Warner’s biggest earners again this year.
Beyond those six franchise titles, Warner has a wave of larger movies that have the potential to hit where Tarzan misfired last summer. Kong: Skull Island, King Arthur, Dunkirk and Blade Runner 2049 have spent the better part of the last calendar year generating buzz (with Dunkirk already receiving some very early Oscar attention) and are likely to add a good chunk to Warner’s box office coffers. Then there’s a wave of less “buzzy” movies that, like Warner’s smaller productions last year, will supplement 2017’s bigger releases. Comedies Fistfight, Going In Style, CHiPs and The House along with films like Unforgettable, Everything, Everything and Geostorm will not only make sure Warner has a constant presence at the multiplex, but will likely push them beyond last year’s box office returns.
Outside of Live By Night, Warner will have one or two more bombs on its hands this year (my money is on CHiPs and Blade Runner to fall the hardest), but there’s plenty of reason to believe are Hollywood’s best bet to threaten Disney’s place atop the box office throne.
So grab your popcorn. Box Office Roundup will return March 6th. In the meantime, stay safe and have a Happy Valentine’s Day.
Image Warner Brothers Studios
