So it looks like all the bullets we dodged last Christmas have found us this year. Christmas shoppers and parents, consider yourselves officially on the festive clock.
Around this time last year we posted a story urging people to get their Christmas shopping done post haste. Hospitals were being overrun and the world’s healthcare systems were buckling beneath the stress of the COVID-19 pandemic. Those were the days before a vaccine was available and restrictions aimed at curbing infection were still in place across the globe. Restrictions that looked like they could hamper production and distribution of everyone’s favourite Christmas gifts. But while there were a few bumps in the Yuletide road last year, the Christmas of 2020 went off pretty smoothly all things considered.
This year is likely to be a very different story.
But before you accuse us of screaming that the sky is falling again (like a Christmas Chicken Little, if you will), we’re not the only ones waving the red flag. For well over a month now, many big retailers and even some toy companies themselves have been warning parents and shoppers to get their Christmas shopping done ASAP. While COVID-19 is still the economic elephant in the global room, there are a lot of other factors stacked against the shopping public this Christmas season.
While factories and production plants seem to be back up and running, a new problem has risen from the pages of the Coronavirus saga; a crippled global shipping chain. Manufacturing may no longer be the problem, but moving mountains of product and getting it onto store shelves has turned into a Herculean task.
The first strike is a global shipping container shortage. A significant portion of the world’s shipping containers have been devoted to delivering masks, ventilators and other PPE (along with other crucial medical supplies). In some parts of the world, they were even used as ad hoc morgues. The problem is that the world only has a finite amount of those containers and contrary to what many people, pundits and politicians think, we’re still in the grips of a global pandemic. Many of the containers that were used to ship and store precious medical cargo are still being used for that purpose.
Not only has that put a massive kink in plans to ship product across oceans, it’s also inflated toymakers shipping costs drastically. Some container companies are using the shortage to raise the cost of renting a single container from 2200 dollars to over 13,000.
Bet you didn’t have THAT one on your 2021 COVID bingo card, did’ya?
On the other side of the coin, a massive shortage of truck drivers in both North America and Europe has complicated distributing goods when they do reach consuming shores. The fact that some points of distribution are also short bodies doesn’t help. While some companies have containers stacking up at major points of North American and European entry, others have piles of high value goods piling up in China and other Asian manufacturing hotspots. And with only two months before the Christmas shopping bonanza kicks into high gear, manufacturers are still struggling to find ways to get their stuff on store shelves in time.
Hoping for a PS5 or new laptop under the Christmas tree this year? Hope you’ve worked up some serious holiday cred with Santa because the world is also in the midst of a microchip shortage that experts believe will extend until at least the middle of 2022 (and maybe even into 2023). Video game designers are still releasing games for the new platforms, but plenty of fans are left out in the cold because the chip shortage means they couldn’t buy a new gaming console if their lives depended on it. And before you think this shortage will only affect gamers, thing again. This shortage will dramatically reduce the number of smart TVs, computers, tablets, smartphones, laptops and e-book readers produced over the next year or two. A lot of household appliances depend on these chips as well (so don’t get too attached to the idea of a new blender or coffee maker in your stocking this year).
How bad could this be? you may ask. Major car manufacturers are now being forced to cut back production on current product lines while pushing new ones back until this shortage comes to an end. THAT’S how bad it could be.
In case you need a bow on this depressing package, North America could also be staring a cardboard and paper shortage right in the face as well. First, producers faced heightened demand for shipping boxes when lockdowns and shuttered shopping malls drove millions of people to shop online. Second, the entire west coast, where both the United States and Canada get’s most of it’s softwood lumber, has been on fire pretty much the entire year. Combine the two and you might get the idea of how big this particular chunk of coal could be (California and British Columbia don’t have summer anymore; they have fire season). Not only will this affect the packaging your purchases are shipped in (whether a crate delivered to a store or the boxes your e-tailer of choice uses to mail them) but also the wrapping paper you wrap them in (and the cardboard tubes said wrapping paper is on).
It may even affect the gift cards you’ll fall back on if you can’t find that one perfect gift.
Did we forget to mention that climate change may be to blame for a looming chocolate shortage? And none of the above mentions skyrocketing fuel prices (and the ripple effect that can have on EVERYTHING).
Look, we hate being the doomsayers again this year, but this can all be avoided. Or at least managed. The early bird truly will get the worm. For a lot of people, it’s common operating procedure to wait until the last minute to complete (or even start) their Christmas shopping. Part of it is the hope that you can take advantage of some last minute, kick-ass Christmas sales and part of it is a bizarre sense of pride. Running around on Christmas Eve to get everything on their list seems to be a morbid holiday tradition for way too many people.
But none of that may be an option this year. And the signs are already all around you. How many times have you walked into a Wal-Mart or a Target or a Toy”R Us only to be greeted with bare shelves and empty pegs this year? We recently published a column explaining how a resurgence in 80’s themed franchises could re-invigorate the toy market. But those shiny new toy lines are already riding an unpredictable distribution roller coaster. New lines of Transformer and He-Man toys-all scheduled to take advantage of new media-have seen their release dates go from August to September to October. And some now have a big To Be Determined as their release date.
Remember, this isn’t only restricted to toys, electronics and boxes of chocolates. Many retailers struggled with back-to-school this year. They got so little of some product they simply couldn’t stock their stores with it. So they sold it exclusively online instead. And there was plenty of other product they simply couldn’t get because it wasn’t available. Many parents were frustrated by empty shelves when shopping for new clothes for their kids return to class.
IKEA-whose Christmas is essentially the back-to-school season-has been struggling with so many shortages and is so uncertain when some product will become available again that the Swedish giant has begun removing product from its website altogether.
And ask your favourite construction worker or contractor how life has been lately. Many projects are downsizing or redrawing their schedules because of a lack of raw materials.
Do you call the United Kingdom home right now? Well, you’ve got Brexit messing up everything on top of all the above. Santa may not even get permission to fly in British skies this year.
And you won’t get to cry ignorance if you’re got empty handed this year. every major news network has run stories on this problem since the steamy days of summer, so it’s not like the media hasn’t been sounding a warning bell.
So it’s simple. You have no excuse. But you do have a chance to avoid shopping stress and Christmas morning disappointment. Forget Black Friday and last minute shopping this year and warm up those credit cards now.
Otherwise you’ll just be holiday losers.
Image via www.foxbusiness.com
