Have you wandered the toy aisles of your local Walmart or COSTCO lately? Made a trip to IKEA or Toys R Us in the last little while? Been to the Lego store just to browse the new stuff? Notice anything unsettling?
Like empty product displays and bare shelves, perhaps?
While public schools, theatre chains, mega churches and restaurants have been dominating the recent Coronavirus conversation (along with the associated risks and potential public health fallout), almost no one seems to be talking about factories and production plants. Particularly the ones in China, the country where the novel Coronavirus originated (and if we’re being honest, the first country to bungle containment).
Most importantly, how many of those factories remain dark nearly seven months later while the ones that are open aren’t producing anywhere near regular capacity. And like it or not, China is the well from which the vast majority of our creature comforts spring. Including the majority of the stuff we scoop up like ravenous thieves during our annual Christmas shopping orgy. Even if the object of your consuming heart’s desire isn’t made in the Middle Kingdom, there’s a very good chance that an important piece or part of it is.
Unconvinced? Have you tried getting a Nintendo Switch lately?
And here’s the important thing to remember; the absence of Chinese production is just the first domino in this chain of retail unpleasantness.
Right now there’s more than a few eyeballs being rolled. “Christmas is still months away,” they’re thinking. “There’s plenty of time between now and then and it’s the last thing I want to worry about. I’m still wearing shorts and enjoying Sunday barbecues.” Fair enough, but ask yourself-where were you four months ago? Quite likely you were stuck at home in quarantine and the Coronavirus that put you there hasn’t gone anywhere. Not only will it still be here four months from now, not only will you still need to wear a mask to go to Starbucks and the grocery store, you’ll still be expected to practice social distancing and odds are we could be dealing with a nasty second wave.
Or look at it this way. While most people don’t even think of starting their Christmas shopping until November, retailers both big and small start planning their holiday strategies as early as May. Everything from inventory levels to new product lines to staffing requirements and advertising starts getting hashed out weeks before the calendar officially flips to summer.
Except this year.
In May most of those retailers were still sealed shut and when they returned they were focused one hundred percent on enhanced safety measures, cleaning protocols and (presumably) staff safety.
And how they were going to stay in business (some didn’t).
Usually at this time of year, board rooms and management offices are dominated by conference calls about the Christmas season (which unofficially begins for most retailers in September and exponentially cranks up). Most of those phone calls aren’t taking place though, and some have been postponed indefinitely.
Because China isn’t the only problem they have to deal with. Not only are production facilities here in North America labouring under safety protocols that restrict their output, but so are points of receiving and distribution centres. Those ships that are coming in from China? It may take twice as long to unload them given the new world we live in. And Walmart and Target’s distribution centres aren’t going to be able to ship nearly as many Christmas goodies as usual while they obey necessary social distancing rules.
And if your forced to rely on the United States Postal Service for anything between now and January, well you already know the challenges you’ll be facing as Uncle Sam’s post office has become a political football in America’s continuing culture wars.
The simple truth is the Pandemic is going to get worse before it gets better. Many health experts north of the border fear rushing kids back to school this fall will spark a dangerous second wave. Which means we could face future lockdowns or rollbacks. Closing non-essential businesses (i.e. department stores and major retailers) for a month or six weeks between now and New Year’s is a very real possibility. And not only will that deprive you of your favourite holiday shopping experience for a month or so, it will also create havoc in the shipping chain (the mail will be backed up beyond your wildest nightmares), the production chain (factories aren’t going to make anything if there are no stores open to sell them) and will push new product lines back by at least another six months.
And none of that says anything of the enormous inconvenience shoppers will be facing. Most stores are still going to enforce maximum customer numbers come December. Those lines you’ve already seen waiting to get into Lululemon and Staples will not only still be there in December, but they’ll be longer. A lot longer. And you may not be able to rely on those trusty extended shopping hours this year, particularly if we’re at the mercy of a second wave this winter.
And in case you’re thinking online shopping will solve all your problems this Holiday season, think again. During normal years online retailers start warning customers of possible backlogs, product shortages and unreliable dates as early as late November. You can expect those warnings as early as Halloween this year.
In fact we’re already seeing it. Believe it or not, we’re only about ten weeks away from the Christmas season hitting its first gear. But despite that both Sony and Microsoft are still advertising their next generation consoles will be released sometime during the “2020 Holiday season,” which at this point is likely code for sometime in 2021. Retail analysts have estimated that American stores are currently carrying over forty percent less new stock then they were at this time last year. MGM Entertainment-the manufacturer of the obscenely popular L.O.L. dolls-were warning of product shortages and delays for this Christmas as early as last February.
These examples are just a few tips of the same iceberg. And they will all snowball between now and Christmas.
If you haven’t come to terms with the fact that the world we enjoyed (and took for granted) just seven months ago is gone, well this Christmas shopping season should do it. Everything from eating to entertainment, how we travel to how we to educate our children has changed. Shopping and gift giving is no different. If you want to be just as generous as you have been in previous years (and you can afford to-that’s a different debate entirely), you will have to adapt. And just with everything else, the best way to prepare for this Christmas season will be to get a head start. Starting late (and bragging about it) won’t cut it this year.
So unless you want to see your or best friends or most cherished loved ones opening candy bars and feigning delight over gift cards Christmas morning, get yourself to your closest shopping mall or log on to your e-tailer of choice now. Because if you’re coming up empty in December and frantically worrying what you’re going to put under the tree or in that all important stocking, you’ll have no one to blame but yourself.
