OK Marvel fans, take a breath. Calm down and step away from the online petitions and the keyboards you’ve been beating in outrage.
Saying the cancellation of Netflix’s Iron Fist and Luke Cage shows last month was a surprise is an understatement. It was a genuine shock considering each show had released their respective second seasons within the past few months and both enjoyed stronger critical and audience receptions (especially Iron Fist) than their premier seasons.
Many of you were left wondering if Netflix truly had time to digest the viewership numbers given how recently the new seasons had dropped. Were other motives behind the cancelations? In the case of Luke Cage, scripts for half of season three had already been completed (reportedly with creative input from Netflix) and many of the leading actors (including series lead Mike Colt) were under contract for at least one more season.
Many of you could be forgiven for wondering what this means for the Marvel Netflix Universe at large?
Put plainly, it was a WTF moment for many fans for many reasons.
But when you take that deep breath we talked about, you may smell something bigger cooking. Something arguably better.
Theories immediately began flying around the blogosphere about the cancellations. Was Disney setting up a Heroes For Hire show starring both Luke Cage and Iron Fist? Would Disney move the shows to their new streaming service, even after Disney CEO Bob Iger said the Netflix stuff would remain on Netflix? Would the characters be moved to the MCU? Would they show up on ABC?
The actual result will probably be a combination of all these theories even though they all seem to ignore a emerging business reality that probably played a big part in these decisions.
Let’s start with what we know.
One theory for the cancelation of the shows was low ratings, but since Netflix is notoriously protective of their viewership metrics there’s no way to know how many people really tuned in. As a result the best we can do is speculate. One thing is for sure, the first season of both shows was enough to justify second seasons and many online pundits were right when they said cancellation seemed like a hasty decision given how little time Netflix gave themselves to crunch the viewership numbers (which were literally released only weeks apart).
It’s also worth taking a very precise look at the wording Disney used to announce Iron Fist’s cancellation. While they checked all the necessary boxes, thanking fans for their support and everyone involved for their hard work, they promised this wasn’t the end for the character even if it was for his show. Iron Fist would, they promised, live on. You can bet that was pretty much the same sentiment for Luke Cage.
Disney’s streaming service (currently titled DisneyPlay) is scheduled to launch in 2019, likely in the fall. Disney has already announced the slate of movies it will launch with (likely franchise blockbusters all), and is investing heavily in original TV shows (the budget for The Mandolarian would make the most expensive network show blush). Disney also recently announced that their Marvel division would also get in on the act, with shows based on Loki and The Scarlet Witch.
And one of the reasons they pursued Fox so heavily (and expensively) was to bolster their content library.
Disney knows what its doing. They were sitting on a treasure trove of content even before they bought Fox. Think of all the movies, TV shows and cartoons the House of the Mouse has been responsible for during the past century. Between it’s various brands Disney is putting out about a dozen tent pole pictures a year (not to mention the buffet of TV content) and can promote their new service and programming across their numerous other platforms, including ABC, Disney XD, various Family Channels and, thanks to the Fox purchase, the FX channels.
The plan is to launch DisneyPlay with a fraction of the content available so they can keep the price down (Iger revealed that the service’s initial price point would be reflective of its content). A price that would, initially, be lower than Netflix’s. Disney could attract subscribers with attractive new content-that they can’t find anywhere else-offered at a more than competitive monthly rate. Then over time they can increase the amount of exclusive original programming, buffered by their decades worth of other content, raising the price incrementally as they do so.
Iger has also warned fans not to expect everything Disney to flood their service as they honour existing licensing agreements. There’s a method to this madness as well.
And this last point may be the ultimate reason why Iron Fist and Luke Cage may no longer be calling Netflix home.
Netflix and Disney are going to be competitors by this time next year and by 2020 there’s a very good chance that rivalry will be red hot. Netflix has also proven it knows what its doing and as it stands right now, it may be the only company on the planet that can compete with Disney content-wise. So if you’re Netflix, do you really want to spend any more time promoting Disney owned programming?
Netflix barely promoted the release of Daredevil’s third season even though its considered the strongest show in the Marvel stable and the third season has been getting rave reviews. Netflix raised more than a few eyebrows when it announced Luke Cage’s cancellation the day of Daredevil’s release, taking attention away from the Defender of Hell’s Kitchen.
While additional seasons of Jessica Jones and The Punisher are already under way, it’s quite likely we’ll see those shows get the same treatment; little to no promotion and hasty cancellations following their drops. Again, Netflix will want to spend as little time helping their powerful new competitor and with a growing slate of popular homemade programming they won’t need the Marvel shows moving forward.
And don’t forget, Netflix owns the rights to Mark Millar’s Millarworld, giving them plenty of opportunity to scratch that comic book itch if and when they cut ties with Marvel.
Which brings us back to DisneyPlay. Popular Youtube personality Grace Randolph raised a good point about Iron Fist and Luke Cage migrating to Disney’s new service following their cancellation. Both shows could be stained by their cancellation and Disney would look like they were be settling for Netflix’s rejects (not an image Disney wants to portray right out of the gate). But that isn’t to say that A Heroes For Hire show couldn’t call DisneyPlay home along side Loki and The Scarlet Witch (and maybe an X show or two?).
And if a HFH show can prosper there (especially given the possible fan appetite their Netflix cancellation could generate), would that not set the stage for Marvel’s other Netflix shows to move as well? Would its success not essentially put out the welcome mat for Daredevil, Jessica Jones and maybe even The Punisher? Not to mention all the other toys Disney has in their Marvel sandbox (could we finally get that oft rumoured Moon Knight show?).
And if that is the case, what’s to stop Disney from using DisneyPlay as a portal to an exclusive Marvel service to rival DC’s current one?
At the end of the day, both companies know what they’re doing and this may be the opening moves in a fascinating chess match that could be a dream come true for fans (imagine the possibilities of two massive companies constantly feuding for your attention and your streaming dollars). The sky isn’t falling on these characters, despite their cancellations. Instead it’s quite likely this is the beginning of a transition into an exciting new day of entertainment, one that will benefit fans.
Image via IGN.com
