How Will Hollywood Fare Under President Trump?
By now just about every question has been asked about the Oval Office’s unpredictable new occupant. What impact will President Donald Trump’s policies have on the economy, both American and global? How will his Presidency affect America’s relations with the other 194 countries on the planet? What new laws can we look forward to? Which ones will fall by the wayside? What will the day-to-day life of Joe and Jane Q public look like and what sort of headlines can we expect over for the next four years?
Just about every industry and business has been scrutinized with every possible outcome examined beneath a microscope. But the entertainment business seems to have escaped any sort of significant examination, which is odd when you consider how many people Hollywood employs worldwide and that Tinsel town brings billions upon billions of foreign dollars into the United States every year.
What will the moving picture business look like under President Donald J. Trump? What sort of pressures can it anticipate? How will adapt and evolve? The entertainment business has proven to be one of the world’s most flexible, adaptable survivors. That being said, will it be able to co-exist with the new administration? Or will America’s 45th President prove to be the asteroid that drives Hollywood into extinction?
Morale
During the weekend following Donald Trump’s victory, the box office did crazy business. What’s remarkable about that is, without taking anything away from the Oscar nominated Arrival, there was no new blockbuster or tent pole release that week. Yet it was estimated that the box office saw a 50% increase over the same weekend in 2015. While there was a lot of dancing around the question about why, everyone came back to the idea that people were looking for an escape. And when you consider that a large portion of the dollars Hollywood brings in are in traditionally blue states (California, New York, etc.), that theory holds up pretty well.
Hollywood is also a pretty Liberal town and if the reaction to Meryl Streep’s Golden Globes denouncement of President Trump is any indication, Hollywood and the new administration are likely to find themselves at ideological odds more often than not. We’ve already seen some of that, with some Trump supporters calling for a boycott of Star Wars Rogue One, condemning screenwriter Chris Weitz’s support for Hillary Clinton during the election and claiming the movie’s diverse cast was Hollywood catering to liberal politics. During the final years of George W. Bush’s presidency, it wasn’t difficult to see how the social fallout from that administration and its policies (particularly the Iraq war) sculpted some of the movies produced at that time.
Is it possible we could see moviemakers (and Hollywood as a whole) using movies as a vehicle to express their reactions to President Trump? Could we witness an interesting parallel between those using the multiplex as an escape opposed to those boycotting specific titles or artists they disagree with? Could we see studios trying to cater to both sides of the political aisle? We are likely to find out sooner rather than later.
Dollar Signs
When the sun dawned on November 9th and a surprised world was reading about its new reality, the first story on Yahoo’s Business News web page was titled “How To Survive The Trump Recession.” While it was obviously a click bait headline, it spoke to the economic worries of millions both inside America’s borders and across the world. While no one knows what the future holds for their retirement funds, two things are certain; Trump won in large part because of his platform of economic protectionism (ripping up existing trade deals and making bilateral ones) and many economists maintain there’s a better than fifty-fifty chance we’ll all have to tighten our belts at some point in the near future.
Hollywood has always walked a fine line when it comes to its relationship with the world’s economic health. On one hand, the box office often benefits because people can’t afford to go on vacation yet remain desperate for an escape. And while people often complain about the cost of a night out at the movies, the price of admission and popcorn are peanuts compared to the price of a week at a Cuban resort.
On the other hand, major studios can’t afford to produce as many movies as they normally would as a result of other financial pressures. Many studios began scaling back production during the financial crisis of 2008 and have maintained that lean production model since. For instance, in 2005 Walt Disney Studios (currently the most successful movie studio in the world) released 31 movies. In 2016, among their various brands (Marvel, Lucas Films, Pixar, etc.) they released 13 and are scheduled to release even fewer in 2017.
But that’s only half the equation. Trump’s protectionist stance could come at a very high cost. For whatever reason, the current Commander-in-Chief used very adversarial rhetoric when discussing trade relations with China (and flouted the “One China” rule in the days following his victory, prompting an official complaint from Beijing). This poses a number of potential economic woes for both the United States and Hollywood.
While China owns the largest slice of American foreign debt in the world, it has also become the planet’s second biggest consumer for movies. There are even those who predict China’s appetite for movies will surpass North America’s in a few years time. Not only has Hollywood grown to depend on the billions of dollars Chinese moviegoers spend every year, but also the financing Chinese businesses eagerly offer as a result.
While some movies can succeed without China (Rogue One’s current domestic gross sits at just over 512 million while none of Deadpool’s 783 million dollars came from China), they are few and far between. Warcraft made over 440 million dollars world wide last summer, but only 47 million in North America with Chinese audiences forming the bulk of Warcraft’s international financial success. What if one of Beijing’s responses to President Trump’s policies is to ban all Hollywood movies from Chinese theatres? The results would be immediate and disastrous for Tinsel town.
In case you think that’s far fetched, it may already be happening. Earlier this month the Chinese government passed laws limiting how much money Chinese firms and corporations can invest abroad, particularly in entertainment. China’s communist government will now painfully scrutinize all investments made and there’s a good chance deals like the ones that allowed Chinese firms to invest 500 million dollars in Universal films last year will be vetoed in the future. This was seen partly as a move to limit capital leaving the country at a time when China’s currency is sliding in value. But it’s also seen as a warning shot to the incoming Trump administration that Beijing isn’t interested in hearing anymore anti-Chinses rhetoric.
Diversity
This may be the biggest one. Some major Hollywood players have been pushing the diversity issue the last year or two, with varying degrees of success and pushback. This was an issue before Trump even threw his name into the presidential ring (see the organized campaigns of misogyny waged against last summer’s female centric Ghostbusters reboot) but it is bound to become a more polarizing issue now. Trump’s campaign often embraced xenophobic, isolationist language and even if Trump himself didn’t use overtly racist language, many of his supporters and surrogates did. His stance on immigration reform drew the controversial support of the KKK and Alt-Right (a polite title for American Neo-Nazis).
You need look no further than the rash of hate crimes that resulted as soon as Trump won the election for evidence that life became more complicated for minorities and people of colour (Trump condemned the attacks during an interview with 60 Minutes last December). Justified or not, Trump’s victory has given these organizations and their movements a bold new confidence.
At the end of the day Hollywood is a business and while it may employ a wide range of artists, it needs to pay the bills and keep the stockholders happy. If having gender and ethnically diverse casts begins causing pushback and boycotts that are reflected in box office numbers, studios will drop their social consciences like hot potatoes. The next two years will be critical for this issue since most major studios either already have or are close to finalizing their release schedules through the end of 2018. If over the next two years trends begin to emerge punishing (or supporting) the decisions to push casting boundaries, Hollywood will act accordingly with its best economic interests at heart.
Image: www.dailymotion.com
